Best NFL Props for Sunday, Oct 18

Over 3.5 Receiving Yards

• No real trend either way • L3 avg 8.5 yards
• Model likes the over at 85%+
• Mid-pack pass D, 234 pass yds/g allowed • rotational role, 1% target share

Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

• Production is steady and clears this number • over this number in 3 of L4
• Model has the over at 68%
• Mid-pack pass D, 234 pass yds/g allowed • 2.85 yds per route, elite

Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

• Right around this number most weeks • under this number in 2 of L5 • 1 TD pass vs Texans last Nov
• Model has the under at 75%
• Opp allows TDs on 58% of red-zone trips • implied team total 22.5

Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts

• Splitting this number lately • over this number in 2 of L5 • 4 carries vs Texans last Nov
• Rated on the spot, not the projection
• Front seven missing multiple starters • 16 carries a game in the window

Under 4.5 Receptions

• Right around this number most weeks • under this number in 2 of L5 • 3 catches vs Texans last Nov
• Model has the under at 59%
• Team's top target, 17% target share • mid-pack pass D, 234 pass yds/g allowed